What’s your Holden worth?

Holden’s Announcement

On the 18^th of February Holden formally announced that they were ceasing the sale of the brand in Australia and New Zealand by the end of 2020. It marks the end of a storied 112-year history in Australia which saw it become a household name across the country having produced 8 million plus vehicles in its lifespan.

Approximately 600 jobs will be lost in Holden’s head office and it’s estimated a further 9,000 jobs will go across 185 Holden dealers in Australia.

While Holden has committed to honouring its warranties and vehicle servicing offerings for at least the next 10 years, this announcement undoubtedly causes concern for the 1.6 million Holden drivers on the road.

Causing even more concern are reports that Holden dealers will be offering discounts up to $17,500 on its stock of new cars for sale. If you’ve just recently bought a new Holden in the past 18 months you might be questioning your original purchase, but also what your car might actually be worth given new ones are being sold at such large discounts.

Holden’s Used Car Values

There have been numerous reports of certain Holden models seeing large increases in their value like the VF Commodore and the HSV range. However, for most Holden drivers who own either an Astra, Barina, Captiva, Colorado or one of their other standard models – they’re probably wondering what this all means for them.

At Prices People Pay we analyse used car price trends across the market, using millions of actual sold prices from Datium Insights that were recorded from auction yards to dealerships. By tracking used car prices over long periods of time we’ve been able to unlock insights and make predictions about where Holden prices may go in the future.

Tanim Ahmed, Head of Product at Datium Insights, says there are a few underlying factors that will drive prices for Holden’s in the future.

“Unlike other brands, Holden has been largely unable to capitalise on the booming interest in SUV’s,” Mr Ahmed said.

“Aside from the Commodore and HSV’s, the waning interest of Australians in Holden’s passenger and SUV line-up will probably spur greater loss in value for these cars than others in Holden’s stable.”

Passenger and SUV

The models estimated to see the harshest drop in value are the Captiva, Trax, Equinox, Astra and Cruze.

Using Prices People Pay’s free used car valuation calculator, a top of the range 2018 Holden Captiva LTZ with 10,000 kilometres is expected to be worth $23,950 – nearly half its original retail price. Unsurprisingly, a similar car is listed as of now on Carsales for $24,900.

“Given Holden’s commitment to warranties and servicing for the next 10 years, if you’re not fussed about resale values then picking up one of these cars new or second hand would be a great buy at the moment,” Mr Ahmed said.

With reports that Holden’s discounts will be made public in March, and subsequent reports of Astra’s and Trax’s being given large discounts to drop them below the $20,000 threshold, there will likely be pressure on used values of these cars to fall substantially in the coming months.

Existing used and demonstrator stock on dealer yards will probably receive the most discounts initially. With Holden dealerships around the country due to wind up sales within the year, and reports of some dealers even aiming earlier for the end of the financial year, the effects of these discounted cars entering the used car market should occur quite rapidly.

HSV Range and Commodores

Similar to historical Holden’s like the Torana and Monaro, the HSV range and Commodores will likely see appreciation in their value over time.

When it comes to the Commodores this is more likely for the locally made version, which is the VF series and prior. The Holden badged but Opel sourced Commodores are unlikely to carry the same appeal and nostalgia that the locally made versions will.

“Late model, locally made versions of the Commodore are doing quite well at the auctions and we expect clearance rates and prices for them to increase in the coming months,” said Mr Ahmed.

“We’ve already seen a Motorsport version fetch 80% of its original price at the auction just after the announcement, despite being over 3 years old. Any holders of these cars may be best placed to hold onto them for longer as they gradually become a collector’s item.”

In the HSV range, the GTS looks to be a standout and will likely sell for more than their original price going forward. A 2017 version with 30,000 kilometres is currently advertised on Carsales for $110,000 – around the price of its RRP. A 2017 Maloo GTS Ute is listed for $115,000 with 13,000 kilometres on the clock.

Colorado

Compared to the Passenger and SUV models, the Colorado is most likely to retain its strong resale values into the future. Having sold over 17,000 units in the tough new car market in 2019, the model clearly has made strong inroads in several Australian industries including the mining sector.

“Even though the Colorado is a Holden, it can clearly stand on its own as a vehicle regardless of the brand. It was the 4^th most popular ute in the new car market last year and we’ve seen it be heavily used by mining and construction businesses. This is the one model that will retain strong favour moving forward,” said Mr Ahmed.

“The Colorado features prominently in leasing fleets and its likely many organisations will capitalise on any large discounts that Holden makes available. They’re sought after as an ex-fleet vehicle so if you’ve been using one as a town car you may find a fair bit of interest for it in the tradie market.”

Given the Australian markets appetite for utes we expect used car prices for the Colorado to hold steady over the next 12 months as discounted new stock enters the used car market.

Holden Financial Services

Somewhat forgotten in all the media releases is the discontinuation of Holden’s finance arm. Holden launched its finance arm in April last year, providing a new retail loan program called Holden Guaranteed Value in the hopes of stimulating its sales.

Similar to Toyota’s Access program and VW’s Guaranteed Future Value program, Holden provided loans to its customers where the balloon amount is guaranteed, as we explained in our previous post on car finance.

As you can imagine, holders of these loans are probably concerned whether the values of their cars will hold up in 3 or 4 years’ time. Holden has committed to honouring these guarantees however and its understood there are very few customers who took up the offer.

Additionally, there are thousands of people who have outstanding loans or leases for Holden’s with a balloon payment at the end. Uncertainty on whether the value of the car will be under water when the balloon payment is due can possibly become a significant financial burden for these people.

If you are one of these loan holders then using Prices People Pay’s free used car valuation calculator to value your car will give you a good indication on where your financial position might stand.

For example, if you’ve got a 3-year-old Holden Cruze Equipe hatchback with 30,000 kilometres on the clock then your expected market value would be $10,200. If your balloon or guaranteed future value is somewhere in the ballpark, then you’re looking good for now.

Are you a Holden car owner affected by Holden’s decision? Comment below on your experience.

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